causation

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Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper has been running a series of articles on income inequality. This post presents some comments on the coverage of income inequality and health in Wealth begets health: Why universal medical care only goes so far by André Picard.

I make three points. First, that the article is much more consistent with the literature if one reads “poverty” every time the article uses the word “inequality.” Second, that the fact that income and health are correlated across people or across regions does not tell us that income causes health. And finally, that the research does suggest that decreasing poverty will increase health, but that we should not expect substantial reductions in health care expenditures as a result. I close with some notes on policy implications.

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The 2013 Nobel prize in economics was won by Fama, Shiller, and some other dude, according to most media accounts. Fama and Shiller were pretty easy to explain: one of them is at Chicago and is associated with a theory called “efficient markets,” so he’s the free market guy. Shiller criticized the Chicago guy, so we know where to put him on the political spectrum. But this third guy, Hansen, well, he’s at Chicago, but he does some sort of theoretical econometrics, so if we’re the Guardian we’ll just assume he’s “ultra-conservative” and then ignore him, or if we’re anyone else we’ll skip to just ignoring him (even the Economist gives up, complaining they can’t explain his work without “writing all sorts of equations in our newspaper.”) This post attempts to provide a relatively gentle, albeit with all sorts of equations, introduction to part of the third guys’s research, focusing on applications in causal modeling in microeconomics rather than the examples from finance or macroeconomics.

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